TYPHOON ANALYSIS INTENSITY, DAMAGE AND CASUALTY RELATIONSHIP IN FRACTAL CONTEXT

Abstract

The study made use of the descriptive design utilizing secondary data. The approximate histogram of the data was determined to probe the impact of the combined effect of frequency and intensity of storms on both damage and casualty. The histogram shows an exponential growth of the variable if there are lower values than larger values in a given data. The reported damage (D) and a number of casualties (C) of typhoons hitting the Philippines since 1960 were observed to obey an exponential distribution. The corresponding fractal random variables of these exponential variates were interpreted as X economic impact of the damage (D) and Y, the number of people affected by the casualty (C). While damage (D) and a number of casualties (C) were found to be significantly correlated, economic impact (X) and the number of people affected by the casualty (Y) were not. In order that these two latter variables be correlated, it is necessary to obtain more detailed information about the casualty (C), e.g., the casualty is a breadwinner or not. Likewise, the intensity of typhoons hitting a locality is not sufficient to predict both damage and casualty. The combination of frequency and intensity (how often a typhoon of certain intensity hits the locality) does predict both damage and casualty more efficiently.