A FRACTAL APPROACH TO THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS

Abstract

This paper examines the documented HIV cases around the world as reported by the United Nations in 2012. A fractal analysis was performed to develop an epidemiologic model for the spread of HIV infection. As revealed the reported HIV cases do not follow a fractal model, rather, the logarithmic data transformation showed a lognormal distribution. The epidemiologic model developed assumed a normal distribution on the logarithm of the data and therefore, the spread of the disease is modeled as a Brownian motion with two (2) centers. The first center of the Brownian model is located at the original “origin†of the disease in Africa, while the second center is located in a Latin American country. The two (2) Brownian processes will eventually intersect thereby accelerating the spread of the disease. Both active and passive intervention strategies are discussed to halt the spread of the disease globally. The two (2) fundamental reasons which facilitate the spread of the disease are (a) migration of workers due to national economic constraints, and (b.) social and cultural stigma attached to the disease.