USING THE DYNAMICS OF THE LOGISTIC MAP AS TOOL FOR RAPID ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT

Abstract

This paper uses the logistic map as a primary tool for Rapid Ecosystem Assessment (REA). The behavior of the iterates of the logistic map depends on the growth parameter ðœƒ  which conveys information about how well the ecosystem supports the growth of the organism. The ratio t=ɵ/4 expressed in percentage, indicates the proportion of the environment which is still in good condition. An estimator for  based on available data is given as 4y, where y is the largest observed value. The properties of the estimator ðœƒ  are derived and discussed. Data on the fisheries volume of production by Region and by Province were obtained from the Fisheries Statistics of the Philippines (Philippine Statistics Authority, Vol.12-24, 2016) from 2001 to 2015 on which the growth parameters were estimated. Results indicate that in the Caraga region, 96% of the marine environment remains good and capable of sustaining fisheries. On the other hand, Region IV-A has only 70% of its fishing grounds staying in excellent condition while the remaining 30% of the fishing ground is no longer able to sustain fisheries production. The effects of industrialization and overfishing in Region IV-A (Calabarzon Special Economic Zone) were identified as possible causes of the gradual decline of the excellent fishing grounds in this region. More rigorous Marine Environment Assessment to pinpoint the 30% degraded area and the establishment of Marine Protected Areas to resuscitate these fishing grounds are suggested as interventions.