PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE LARGEST SEISMIC SIGNAL OF A RANDOM NUMBER OF SIGNALS

Abstract

                   The paper proposes a probability distribution for the largest seismic signal where the signals are assumed to obey a beta distribution and the number of signals is also assumed random. It is shown that the 7-year hourly seismic recordings for the Caraga region in the Philippines obey a beta distribution with parameters q and r estimated from the data. The probability distribution of the largest seismic signal exceeding a certain magnitude is constructed and is applied to the setting. Results reveal that approximately 236 of the largest seismic signals in the Caraga region will exceed magnitude 6 in any given year.